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It is too early to make assumptions regarding Beachy

Instead of using Twitter to announce Brandon Beachy will visit Dr. James Andrews on Monday, the Braves could have actually lightened the mood by allowing comedian Stephen Wright to make the announcement.

There is nothing funny about the fact that the news regarding Beachy was revealed just a few hours after Jason Heyward had two metal plates inserted into the fractured jaw that will sideline him at least until the latter portion of September.  But I suggest you wait a few more days before allowing this double whammy to lead to a full-blown panic attack.

It is concerning that Beachy experienced a sudden drop in velocity during the sixth inning of Tuesday’s start against the Mets. But for now, the Braves believe this was simply a product of the inconsistencies a pitcher often experiences after returning from Tommy John surgery.

When asked if he believes he will pitch again this year, Beachy said he is “confident” that he will.  But before doing so, he is going to see Andrews who will evaluate the elbow he surgically-repaired 14 months ago.  There is a chance the accomplished surgeon could deliver some bad news.  But there is also a chance he will simply send Beachy back to Atlanta with peace of mind.

Beachy began feeling some tightness during the fifth inning of Tuesday night’s start against the Mets.  He likened it to what he felt when he was shut down with elbow inflammation in June,  just days before he was originally scheduled to make his first big league start since the surgery.

Through Tuesday’s first four innings, Beachy’s fastball velocity (89-92 and touched 93 mph ) was similar to what it was during each of the previous four starts he had made since returning from the surgical procedure on July 29.  The velo drop was very slight in the fifth and much more noticeable in the sixth, especially toward the end of the inning when the last three fastballs he threw were clocked in order at 87, 85 and 82 mph.

Here’s a breakdown of his velo during Tuesday’s  final three innings:

Fourth inning:   Nine fastballs averaged 90.1 mph

Fifth inning;  10 fastballs averaged 89.4 mph

Sixth inning:  10 fastballs average 86.7 mph

Now courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net, here is a look at Beachy’s average and max fastball velo from each of the five starts he has made since returning:

July 29 vs. COL:  91.9 average, 93.6 max

Aug. 3 at PHI:  91.8, 93.1

Aug. 9 vs. MIA:  90.5, 94.2

Aug. 14 vs. PHI: 89.8, 93.7

Aug. 20 vs. NYM: 90.5, 93.3

So the only time, Beachy’s average velo has even slightly dipped below 90 mph this month came on Aug.14,  five days after he had thrown a season-high 99 pitches and completed eight innings for the first time since May 17, 2012.

Given the significant velo drop that occurred at the end of Tuesday’s outing provides reason for concern.  But this might have simply been a sign that Beachy is ready for that break the Braves had already been planning to give him and their other five starters over the next couple weeks.

Manager Fredi Gonzalez and pitching coach Roger McDowell had planned to skip each starting pitcher through one turn of the rotation.  Beachy might need to skip two turns.  Or maybe he will indeed get some bad news while visiting with Dr. Andrews. But for now, it is too early to make assumptions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Heyward’s absence will test the Braves’ perseverence

As troubling as it might be to wonder how the Braves will perform in Jason Heyward’s absence, this is certainly not the first time the club has been forced to overcome the extended absence of a key figure.

If you forgot Brian McCann missed this season’s first five weeks recovering from shoulder surgery, it is probably because Evan Gattis spent this span performing more like a five-time Silver Slugger award winner than a rookie getting his first taste of the big leagues.   The Braves went 18-12 during this stretch, which included Heyward’s absence after he underwent an emergency appendectomy on April

Then of course you had the gruesome season-ending injury Tim Hudson suffered last month.  Instead of waiting for the sky to fall upon them, the Braves have won 20 of 25 since then and seen their rotation compile a 3.11 ERA  — the National League’s third-best mark during this span.

Depth and perseverance have enabled the Braves to overcome adversity and compile the game’s best record through this season’s first 126 games.  But this year’s greatest challenge could come as they attempt to spend the remainder of the season without knowing exactly what to expect from Heyward.

The Braves know Heyward will be sidelined at least a month while recovering from the broken jaw he suffered when he was hit on the right side of his face with Jon Niese’s 90-mph fastball on Wednesday afternoon.  Realistically, Heyward will be out closer to six weeks, which would account for the remainder of the regular season.

So while there is hope Heyward could be cleared just before the end of the regular season, there is certainly no reason to know what to expect from him when he returns.  This unfortunate incident is one that requires both physical and mental healing.

When Heyward returned from his appendectomy earlier this year, it took him a couple weeks to get his timing back and find the rhythm that has enabled him to hit .301 with a .881 OPS in the 62 games he has played dating back to June 2.   Now along with regaining timing and the rhythm of his swing, Heyward will be forced to find comfort stepping back in that batter’s box after experiencing this scare. 

If all goes well, Heyward could compile some at-bats in the Instructional League and possibly simulated games thrown by Atlanta’s pitchers who might need some work in late September.  But it will likely take more than just a couple weeks of seeing living pitcher for him to regain most of his confidence.

Even if Heyward is not able to provide desired production at the plate upon his return, he could continue to be an asset with his Gold Glove-caliber defense.  But somebody will need to step up and compensate for the offensive production Heyward provided while hitting .345 with a .418 on-base percentage in the 23 games he played after moving to the leadoff role on July 27.

Jordan Schafer will likely have an opportunity to man the leadoff spot over the course of the next month.   But Schafer has gone 3-for-22 and compiled a .240 on-base percentage in the 25 plate appearance he has recorded since returning from a month-long stint on the disabled list earlier this month.  Regular playing time could help him get out of this funk or simply prove he has been brought back to reality since hitting .312 with a .399 on-base percentage in the 61 games he played before being disabled with a stress fracture in his foot.

Manager Fredi Gonzalez has spent the past two weeks platooning Schafer with B.J. Upton.  The timing of this decision prevented Upton from building on the success he had when he recorded 10 hits in his first 21 at-bats after ending a three-week stint on the disabled list earlier this month.

In my opinion, this was the time when the Braves needed to give Upton a “fresh start” and allow him to gain a sense that they were still confident he could be the player they envisioned when he signed a franchise record five-year, $75.25 million contract in November.  But the veteran center fielder has simply weakened this argument while going hitless in his past 24 at-bats and dropping his batting average to .183.

Still to keep the outfield defense strong and provide Upton a chance to get going, it might be wise for Gonzalez to attempt to use Upton and Schafer in the same lineup over the next couple of weeks.  Either would obviously be a significant upgrade in comparison to using either Gattis or Joey Terdoslavich in left field on a daily basis.

While Upton has struggled throughout this season, optimists have said he’ll get going like he did when he hit .249 with 19 home runs and a .864 OPS in last season’s final two months.

Well there is no time like the present for Upton to suddenly come to life and produce yet another torrid stretch that could allow the Braves to compensate for Heyward’s significant absence.

Pastornicky will undergo season-ending knee surgery

Tyler Pastornicky’s opportunity to fill in as Atlanta’s starting second baseman proved to be short-lived.  Early Friday afternoon, the Braves announced Pastornicky will undergo season-ending left knee surgery to repair the damage he suffered during a collision with Jason Heyward on Wednesday night.

An MRI exam performed on Thursday showed Pastornicky tore the left anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.   A timetable for recovery was not immediately provided.

The Braves have filled Pastornicky’s roster spot by purchasing Phil Gosselin’s contract from Triple-A Gwinnett.  Gosselin could simply provide depth while Paul Janish serves as the everyday second baseman in the absences of both Pastornicky and Dan Uggla.

When Dan Uggla agreed it was time to undergo LASIK surgery and consequently begin a disabled list stint late Tuesday afternoon, the Braves promoted Pastornicky from Gwinnett with the expectation he would serve as the starting second baseman in place of Uggla, who will not be eligible for activation until Aug. 28.

With shortstop Andrelton Simmons and Janish manning the middle infield spots, the Braves would have an incredibly gifted middle infield duo from a defensive standpoint.  But Janish’s limited offensive capabilities have led the club to actively search for an infielder who could be acquired via a waiver wire deal.

Pastornicky suffered his injury when he went back to catch Jimmy Rollins’s pop fly during the third inning of Wednesday’s win over the Phillies.  As he stopped to catch the ball along the right field foul line, he was clipped by a hard-charging Heyward and  the fell to the ground.  Both players said they had called for the ball.

After remaining on the ground for a short time, Pastornicky completed the inning.  But he did not return to the field when the fourth inning began.

Gosselin has batted .277 with two home runs and 11 RBI in the 47 games he has played since being promoted from Double-A Mississippi to Gwinnett earlier this year.

Braves have proven they can beat front-line starters

Despite scoring one run or less in two of their past three games, the Braves have averaged a full run per game (5.41) more than any other National League team dating back to July 26.  So before getting overly concerned about the complete game gem Cole Hamels twirled at Turner Field last night, remember that while proving victorious in 15 of their past 17 games,  remember the Braves have won games in which they opposed Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman.

Over the next six weeks, you are going to hear many fans and media members question whether the Braves have the offense and rotation needed to match up against the high-caliber starting pitchers that would serve as the opposition during the postseason. Like virtually every other club Atlanta would obviously be the underdog in any matchup against the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw.  But such would not necessarily be the case in any matchup that pitted them against  Zack Greinke, A.J. Burnett, Jeff Locke, Mat Latos, Tony Cingrani, Wainwright or any of the other starting pitchers they would most likely oppose during the NL playoffs.

With Mike Minor and Julio Teheran, the Braves have a pair of front-line caliber pitchers who are capable of matching up against each of these aforementioned pitchers and providing their offense the ability to produce the kind of necessary damage that it has produced against the highly-respected starting pitchers faced over the past 2 1/2 weeks.

With the recently much-improved Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy and possibly even Alex Wood, the Braves have three more starters who have the potential to provide quality depth to the three or four-man rotations that would be assembled during the playoffs.

Wainwright, Lee, Strasburg, Gonzalez and Zimmerman all escaped their most recent outings against the Braves without allowing more than three earned runs.   But they were doomed by the fact that Atlanta’s young starters proved capable of winning those pitching-dominated affairs that often develop during the playoffs.

To be fair, it should be pointed out that the Braves have taken advantage of the opportunities to face the disappointing offenses possessed by the Phillies, Nationals and Marlins over the course of the past week.  But it should also be noted that the 14-game winning streak that ended on Saturday began with seven combined wins against the Cardinals and Rockies, two of the NL’s top three offensive clubs.

The Braves’ offense will have a chance to get back on track tonight against Phillies’ right-hander Ethan Martin, a native of Athens, Ga. who allowed his emotions to get the best of him as he allowed his once-beloved Braves six earned runs and eight hits in just 4 1/3 innings during his big league debut on Aug. 2.  It will be interesting to see how he reacts while pitching in front of the large contingent of family and friends who will likely come to see him pitch for the first time at Turner Field.

More importantly, tonight’s game will provide Medlen an opportunity to build on the season-best performance he produced while limiting the Nationals to three hits in seven innings last week.  For the first time this year, Medlen displayed consistent fastball command and the ability to throw his curveball for strikes and as a swing-and-miss pitch.

Nobody is expecting Medlen to duplicate the dominance he produced while posting  a 0.97 ERA in the 12 starts he made during last year’s final two months.  But over the past couple of weeks, he has provided regular signs of encouragement and a sense that the Braves might be able to rely on him both for the stretch run and during the playoffs.

Hanson demoted:  When word spread that the Angels had optioned Tommy Hanson to their Triple-A affiliate last night, some fans used Twitter to declare the Braves the winner in the offseason trade that sent Hanson to Anaheim in exchange for valuable setup man Jordan Walden.  While Twitter provides an avenue or immediate responses, I’d say these reactions were provided at least eight months after this was already obvious.

Hours before likely non-tendering Hanson, Braves general manager Frank Wren was able to exchange the declining right-hander for Walden, who was just one year removed from a 32-save season.   While Walden has limited opponents to a .204 batting average and .269 on-base percentage in 43 appearances with Atlanta, Hanson has produced a 5.59 ERA in 13 starts for the Angels.  In the 49 starts he has made since the 2011 All-Star break, Hanson has compiled a 5.12 ERA.

 

 

Teheran has continued to impress as this season has progressed

When Julio Teheran allowed four earned runs through the first two innings of his April 12 start against the Nationals, a fan tweeted a question asking whether Teheran was in the early stages of the same journey navigated last year by Mike Minor, who struggled mightily in the first half and then proved to be one of Atlanta’s most dependable starters in the second half.

At the time, Teheran had allowed nine earned runs through his first seven innings of this season.  His offspeed stuff seemed inconsistent and he was in the midst of just his sixth big league start.  Given that Minor had completed 38 starts before beginning his impressive turnaround, I responded by saying that I didn’t think Teheran was at that stage where we could assume that he was going to make that immediate transformation to front-line starter this year.

Boy was I wrong.  In fact, Teheran was about a week away from suddenly transforming into one of the game’s top starting pitchers.

Since allowing at least four earned runs in each of his first three starts, Teheran has posted a 2.38 ERA in the 19 starts that have followed.   The only three National League pitchers to produce a better ERA during this span (going back to April 23) are Clayton Kershaw (1.87), Jeff Locke (2.08) and Matt Harvey (2.34).

We have seen Teheran develop a much quicker and impressive pace than most of us could have imagined.  The 22-year-old hurler took another step up the maturation ladder last week based on the calm, cool and confident manner he reacted during the verbal exchange he shared with Bryce Harper after Harper objected to getting hit with a first-pitch fastball in the plate appearance that followed his slower-than-usual home run trot.  Once order was restored, Teheran stranded a pair of runners and preserved a one-run lead by retiring Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman.

Tonight, Teheran will make his first start against the Phillies since making his Major League debut with a 4 2/3-inning effort in Philadelphia on May 7, 2011.  Safe to say a lot has changed regarding both Teheran and the Phillies in the two years that have followed.

The Phillies will enter this week’s three-game series at Turner Field having lost 17 of their past 20 games, including each of their past 11 on the road.  When Philadelphia began this morbid stretch on July 20, they were one-game above .500 (49-48) and just 6 1/2 games out of first place in the National League East . They are now 19 1/2 games behind the front-running Braves and just 7 1/2 games in front of the last-place Marlins.

Before opposing Ethan Martin and John Lannan in the final two games of this series against Philadelphia, the Braves will be challenged tonight by Cole Hamels, who has posted a 2.16 ERA in his past seven starts.  Hamels’ only previous matchup against Atlanta this year occurred on Opening Day, when he surrendered three home runs and allowed five earned runs in five innings.

Separation from the pack:  While winning 14 of their past 15 games, the Braves have erased the intrigue surrounding the NL East standings and set the stage to battle and gained MLB’s best record.  They sit 14 1/2 games in front of the second-place Nationals in the division standings and 1 1/2 games in front of the Pirates in the race to gain home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs.

When the Braves began this impressive 15-game stretch, they were eight games in front of both the Phillies and Nationals in the NL East.   They were 6 1/2 games behind the Cardinals in the chase for the NL’s best record.  A little more than two weeks later they are 4 1/2 games in front of both the Cardinals and hard-charging Dodgers, who seem to be the most likely threat to Atlanta’s bid to secure as many home games as possible during the postseason.

Coincidentally, the Braves (.714) and Pirates (.672) own the top two home winning percentages among all big league clubs this season.  Despite how rough life outside of Atlanta has seemed this year for the Braves, they also own the NL’s fourth-best road winning percentage (.516).

Of the 42 games remaining for the Braves, 23 will be played amid the comfort of Turner Field and 19 will be played on the road.

NOTES:  Four Braves players have compiled an on-base percentage greater than .400 over the club’s past 15 games.  They are Freddie Freeman (.446), Jason Heyward (.441), Justin Upton (.441) and Chris Johnson (.421).  Heyward’s production is the most notable given the fact that this run began the day he replaced Andrelton Simmons in the leadoff spot.  Simmons has compiled a .259 on-base percentage in the 62 games he has manned the lineup’s top spot.

The two Atlanta starting pitchers with the lowest ERAs during this 15-game stretch  –  Teheran (1.00 in 18 innings) and Alex Wood (1.89 in 19 innings) –  have combined for 31 starts at the big league level.  With Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm both sidelined, the average age of Atlanta’s starting rotation is 24.4 years.  Still this group has posted a 2.85 ERA in the 16 games that have been played since Hudson suffered his season-ending right leg injury.

 

Braves relievers have been simply dominant against the Nationals

After spotting the Nationals a four-run lead through the first two innings of this year’s season series, the Braves rallied back to claim a 6-4 victory and in the process provided an early indication of things to come.  The final four innings Julio Teheran completed during his six-inning effort during that April 12 evening directed him toward the success he has had in the four months that have followed.

The four scoreless innings the Braves bullpen produced that night…well that just marked the start of the utter dominance it has produced against Washington’s disappointing offense.

The Braves bullpen has not allowed a single run in the 30 innings worked against the Nationals this year.  In the process, this relief corps has surrendered nine hits, issued four walks and limited Washington to a .093 (9-for-97) batting average.

Let this one soak in for just a second:  The Braves bullpen has faced 102 Washington batters this year and just 13 have reached base via a hit or a walk.  Just one the nine hits surrendered was an extra-base hit   –  Adam LaRoche’s double against Craig Kimbrel in the ninth inning of Atlanta’s 2-1, 10-inning win at Turner Field.

LaRoche’s double put runners at second and third with no outs.  Kimbrel escaped the jam with a strikeout, flyout and the one-out Roger Bernadina fielded before throwing to the plate to retire Ryan Zimmerman.

The Nationals have stranded a runner in scoring position during the latter portion of the two one-run losses suffered against the Braves this week.  But this is not anything new.  Washington has hit .183 (13-for-71) with runners in scoring position against Atlanta this season.   On the flip side, Atlanta has hit .275 with runners in scoring position against the Nationals.

Timely hitting and the bullpen’s dominance have been the two key factors that have enabled the Braves to record four one-run victories on the way to winning nine of the first 12 games played against Washington.

Harper vs. Teheran:  If you want to believe Julio Teheran’s take that he was simply trying to come inside with a fastball when he hit Bryce Harper last night, I would like to know if you do indeed still leave cookies out for Santa every year.  Regardless, if Teheran felt the need to send a message after Harper pimped the home run he hit earlier in the night, it was encouraging to see him in the proper manner –  by hitting Harper in the right thigh   — and then stand tall after carrying out the deed.  Click here for a recap and video of the benches-clearing incident.

As Harper understandably came out of the box expressing his displeasure, Teheran did not back down in any shape or manner as he walked toward the Nationals outfielder.  Then after completing his verbal spat with Harper, Teheran kept his composure and stranded a pair of runners by retiring Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth.

Last night marked the 10th time this year Teheran allowed one run or less in a start this year.  According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this is the highest total by a Braves pitcher 22 years-old or younger since Steve Avery did so in 11 such starts during the 1992 season.

Since allowing four runs in both of his first two starts of the season, Teheran has posted a 2.57 ERA in the 20 starts that have followed.  He has allowed less than two runs in each of his past four outings.

QUICK THOUGHTS:  Despite allowing four runs in two of his past three outings, Kris Medlen has been encouraged by the way he has felt during the three starts he has made since the All-Star break.  Thoughts have him moving to the bullpen have at least slightly diminished since Tim Hudson suffered his season-ending injury. But the fact remains that Medlen has struggled throughout much of this season.  Since providing some encouragement while throwing a career-high 116 pitches in 6 2/3 innings against the Dodgers on June 8, he has posted a 5.30 ERA and allowed opponents to produce a .354 on-base percentage in the nine starts that have followed.

Along with attempting to help the Atlanta complete a series sweep and run their winning streak to 13 games tonight, Medlen will be attempting to show the Braves he can be a dependable asset down the stretch.  As things stand, Mike Minor and Teheran are the only obvious guarantees to be part of Atlanta’s postseason rotation.  If Medlen finishes strong, he could be added to this group.  But for now, he has left the door open for Brandon Beachy, Alex Wood or Maholm to make a playoff start.

With Tuesday night’s win, the Braves moved 14 1/2 games in front of the second-place Nationals, providing them their largest division lead since Aug. 28, 2003.  The last time Atlanta had a lead this great through 114 game was in 2002, when they were 18 games up in the National League East standings.

With six hits in the first 16 at-bats he has recorded since returning from the disabled list, B.J. Upton has improved his batting average from .177 to .188.  At the same time he has struck out seven times.  Still there have been encouraging signs as he has driven the ball to the opposite field and showed the ability to turn on a pitch like he did with his two singles last night.  It is far too early to evaluate his post-DL results.  But if you do, remember to account for the fact that he has faced Cliff Lee, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez in the past three days.

Upton extends his latest hot streak and Simmons adds another defensive gem

The Braves have led the National League East since the start of the season and they have had sole possession of first place every day dating back to April 7.  Their slimmest lead was the half-game advantage they owned on May 16 and 17   — the latter being the day during which Justin Upton erased a two-run sixth-inning deficit with a grand slam against Paco Rodriguez.

All still seemed right in Upton’s world at that point.  Earlier in the week, he had marked his return to Arizona with a mammoth shot to center that served as his first home run in a span of 46 at-bats. At the time, we playfully considered this to be a drought.  When he totaled 12 home runs in April, he never went through more than 18 at-bats without hitting one.

But after blasting that slam against the Dodgers, Upton hit just two home runs in the 234 at-bats that followed.  As this true drought progressed, the Braves patiently waited for the streaky outfielder to get hot again.   There were signs of encouragement as Upton hit .292 in July.  But he totaled 10 extra-base hits during this span and just one of those was a home run.

Oh how quickly perceptions can change with just one flick of the calendar.

Upton’s decisive home run in the eighth inning of Monday night’s win over the Nationals was his fourth blast in the past five games.  It was also the culmination of a three-hit performance that began with a pair of singles  –  one that traveled through the middle of the infield and another that was laced to right field against Stephen Strasburg.

“He’s locked in,” Freddie Freeman said. “He’s driving the ball to right-center. If they leave one out over the plate like (Tyler Clippard did Monday), he was able to hit a home run to left.  When he’s doing that, it’s exactly what he was doing in April.  So it’s going to be very tough to beat us if he’s doing that.”

As the Braves won 13 of their first 15 games this season, Upton hit .328 with nine home runs and a 1.256 OPS.  During the club’s current 11-game winning streak, Upton has batted .405 with four home runs and a 1.241 OPS.

After Upton provided his decisive blow on Monday, Andrelton Simmons continued to show why he was so special with the hustle he displayed on a play in which he was not even involved.

With the potential tying run at third base and one out in the ninth inning, Jordan Walden got Scott Hairston to pop out behind the plate.  As Brian McCann went back to the screen to make the catch, Simmons sprinted from his shortstop position to guard the plate.

Sure, Walden was also there.  But as we have come to realize, Simmons is very much like Forest Gump in that he seemingly makes sure he is always around whenever something important is taking place.

Simmons’ strong throw to the plate to deny Wilson Ramos’ bid to score from first base on Adam LaRoche’s first-inning RBI double simply added to the long list of defensive gems he has produced just this week.

To simply say Simmons leads all Major League shortstops with a total of 31 in the Defensive Runs Saved category would be providing just a fraction of the story.  Minnesota’s Pedro Florimon ranks second with 11 and  Baltimore’s J.J. Hardy ranks third with 7.

According to FanGraphs, the top two DRS totals ever recorded by a shortstop in a season were registered by Adam Everett (34 with the 2006 Astros) and Jack Wilson (32 with the 2005 Pirates.  Simmons should easily eclipse both marks by the end of this season.

If they have not already done so, the folks at Rawlings should just go ahead and engrave that Gold Glove now.  And it would be wise for them to keep that template handy for many years to come.

A look at how the NL East race has unfolded

Just like nobody in their right mind could have ever expected, the Braves will enter this week’s three-game series against the Nationals with their largest lead in a division race since Sept. 2, 2003, a day during which Al Leiter beat Mike Hampton at Shea Stadium.

In case you forgot, the Nationals entered this season as the overwhelming favorites to win the National League East race and the Braves were targeted to make their second consecutive appearance in the do-or-die, roll-of-the dice one-game Wild Card playoff game.

Sure, there was reason to believe the Braves could prove the preseason prognosticators wrong by winning the division.  But nobody could have envisioned them owning a 12 1/2-game lead over the second-place Nationals entering tonight’s series opener at Nationals Park.

Let’s take a look at how this race has evolved:

April 1-18:  While the Braves won 13 of their first 15 games (including each of the three played against the Nationals), the Nationals went 9-6 and fell four games back.

April 19-28:  As the Braves were losing seven of the final nine games on their first 10-game road trip, the Nationals went 4-6 and gained just 1 1/2 games.

April 29-May 2:  The two teams split a four-game series at Turner Field, leaving Atlanta with a 2 1/2-game lead

May 3-May 15:   As the Braves won five times during a 12-game stretch that concluded with five losses in a span of six games, the Nationals went 6-5 and pulled within one-game of Atlanta.

May 17-22:  While the Braves were proving perfect during a six-game homestand against the Dodgers and Twins, the Nationals lost four of six and fell to 4 1/2 games back in the division standings.

May 24-30:  The Braves went 4-3 during a seven-game stretch against the Mets and Blue Jays.  Meanwhile, the Nationals went 3-4 and lost another game in the race.

May 31-June 9:  The Braves took two of three against the Nationals in Atlanta and then swept a three-game series against the Pirates.  They then split four games against the Dodgers to leave them 7-3 during this stretch.  Meanwhile, the Nationals went 4-4 during this span and fell 7 1/2 games back.

June 10-26:  As the Braves lost10 of 16, the Nationals won eight of 15 and pulled back within five games of the division lead

June 28-July 14:  While the Braves won nine of their final 16 games before the All-Star break, the Nationals produced a 9-8 stretch that still left them six games back.

July 19-25:  As the Braves lost three of their first seven coming out of the break, they gained two more games against the Nationals,  who went 1-6 during this same stretch

July 26-Aug.4:  While the Braves have been constructing their current 10-game winning streak, the Nationals have gone 5-4 and lost four games in the division standings.

Given that they are just two years removed from their epic September collapse in the NL Wild Card race, the Braves are certainly not going to take anything for granted with 50 games left this season.  But if they can take two of three during this week’s series, they will further deflate the hopes of a Nationals club that simply has not taken advantage of the opportunities they have had to catch Atlanta this year.

While the Braves went 43-42 during an 85-game stretch that spanned from April 19-July25, they actually increased their lead in the NL East race by four games.

 

May

Odds and ends: Beachy proves he can be successful without his slider

Brandon Beachy displayed a sense of satisfaction as he stood in front of his locker following Saturday’s 12-inning win over the Phillies.   While pitching into the seventh inning of the long contest, the Braves right-hander had proven that he can be successful despite the fact that he does not currently have the luxury to rely on his slider.

Beachy’s slider was the prime secondary pitch that he displayed before undergoing Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery.  According to FanGraphs, 18.3 percent of the pitches he threw before injuring his elbow last year were sliders.  This essentially matched the combined percentages of his two other secondary pitches   –  curveball (9.3 percent) and changeup (9.5 percent).

Through the two starts he has made over the past week, it has been evident that he does not yet have enough confidence in his surgically-repaired elbow to consistently command his slider.   According to BrooksBaseball, Beachy threw  19 sliders as he labored through 3 2/3 innings against the Rockies on Monday and then just two sliders during Saturday’s outing in Philadelphia.

After hanging a slider that Phillies outfielder John Mayberry hit into the left field seats for a two-run homer in the second inning, Beachy essentially ditched the pitch.  The only other time he threw came via a 1-2 waste pitch to reliever Zach Miner, whose only previous big league plate appearances came in 2006 (6) and 2009 (1).

But while complimenting his fastball with the curveball and changeup, Beachy had little trouble during his four full innings of work.  After allowing hits to three of the first four batters he faced in the second inning, he retired 14 of the next 16 batters he faced and did not allow a hit during this span.

<p> “I’m a better pitcher with (the slider),” Beachy said after the game. “I’m going to keep working on it in the bullpens and eventually I’ll get the feel for that back and have that as a weapon.”  </P>

While there is a chance Beachy will begin commanding the slider again before the end of this season, none of us should be surprised if we do not see this pitch become a primary weapon again until he has a chance to strengthen his arm and gain more confidence in his elbow this winter.   But for now it appears he can continue to at least be effective while placing a much greater emphasis on his changeup and curveball.

As the Braves attempt to complete a three-game series sweep of the Phillies tonight, they will intently watch Alex Wood with the hope that he extends the success he produced during his strong seven-inning effort against the Rockies on Tuesday.  Two of the three runs Wood surrendered in this outing came courtesy of the misplaced 1-1 fastball that Nolan Arenado hit into the left field seats with two outs in the second inning,  which is when Wood was bothered by a cracked cuticle on his right index finger.

When Wood has been occasionally bothered by this cuticle over the past couple months, he has been forced to ditch his curveball  –  a pitch that might have been effective against Arenado in that situation.   Thanks to some quick assistance from the Braves’ medical staff between the second and third innings, Wood was able to complete the rest of the outing without any further problems or restrictions.   He threw a total of 18 curves during the game and retired 14 of the last 17 batters he faced.

Wood will likely need to be similarly efficient in tonight’s matchup against Cliff Lee, who has posted a 1.38 ERA in his past seven starts against Atlanta.  The only runs the Braves have tallied against Lee this year came during the four-run seventh they produced during a July 5 loss in Philadelphia.

Of course Lee also faces a great challenge as he attempts to cool a Braves offense that has averaged 6.9 runs during the team’s current nine-game winning streak.

A few weeks ago, I mentioned that I might be among those who have placed too great of an emphasis on runners in scoring position stats.  At the time, I was pointing out that the Pirates and Braves ranked as the NL’s two worst teams in this category and still possessed two of the NL’s top records.

Well the Pirates still own the NL’s worst batting average with RISP and entered Sunday with the Senior Circuit’s best winning percentage.  As for the Braves, they ranked last in this category when July began and now own the NL’s third-best mark.

While going 21-11 dating back to June 28, the Braves have hit .319 (88-for-276) with RISP.   They had batted just .225 with RISP during the 77 games that preceded this stretch.

NOTES:  If the Braves beat the Phillies tonight, they will have swept nine of the NL’s 16 teams in a series consisting of at least three games…Atlanta’s 11 1/2-game division lead is the largest they have had through 111 games since the 2002 team had a 17 1/2-game advantage…According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the five hits the Braves recorded on Saturday was the fewest they have had in a game that lasted 12 innings or longer since the famous game they won against Pittsburgh’s Harvey Haddix on May 26, 1959.  Haddix proved perfect through 12 innings that day and ended up allowing just one hit  –  Joe Adcock’s game-winning double with two outs in the 13th inning.  Lew Burdette scattered 12 hits over 13 scoreless innings to get the win for Milwaukee.

Braves are hoping a refreshed B.J. Upton strengthens their red-hot offense

After totaling 40 runs and producing a .999 OPS in this week’s four-game series against the Rockies at Turner Field, the Braves will spend the next three days at Citizens Bank Park facing three Phillies starting pitchers, none of whom are named Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels.   This  is kind of like asking the third round Masters’ leader if he would like to finish the weekend by making the move from Augusta National to Augusta Municipal.

We have not gained a sample size large enough to know whether it is just a coincidence that the Braves have enjoyed their recent offensive surge right after manager Fredi Gonzalez finally moved Andrelton Simmons out of the leadoff spot and replaced him with Jason Heyward.  But it’s pretty safe to assume we’re going to see Heyward at the top of the order for a while and quite possibly for the remainder of the season.

Dating back to Spring Training, Heyward has been the most popular candidate in the “Anyone But Simmons Should Bat Leadoff Campaign.”   Gonzalez waited until last Friday to move him into this role.  When asked why, he told reporters “I succumbed.”   I guess he was just sick of replying, “Because we don’t have Rickey Henderson” every time he was asked ‘why are you still batting Simmons in the leadoff spot?’

While handling the leadoff role throughout  the perfect seven-game homestand completed on Thursday night, Heyward batted .321 with a .424 on-base percentage.  The five walks he drew in the 33 plate appearances compiled during this span were nine fewer than the total Simmons has drawn while compiling a .290 on-base percentage in 288 plate appearances as a leadoff hitter this year.

With more than three months worth of data, we were able to confidently deduce that Simmons was one of the game’s worst leadoff hitters.  Seven games has not provided us enough to confidently know how Heyward will fare in this role moving forward.  But he’s seemingly been the best candidate for a long time and the early results have certainly not altered this belief.

Now that the old and tired leadoff debate has been put on the back burner, it is time to discuss the new hot topic, which is what will the Braves do when B.J. Upton ends his Minor League rehab assignment tonight and returns to Atlanta’s lineup on Saturday.

While some in the Twitter world have said they hope the Braves don’t mess with what they’ve got going by putting Upton back in the lineup immediately, this obviously isn’t going to happen.  Nor should it.  This is the first year of a five-year, $75.25 million agreement with an extremely talented player who has simply played well below expectations since the start of the season.

If the club was confident enough to make this kind of financial obligation to him, there is no reason for them to not be confident in his ability to perform much greater than he has while hitting .177 with eight home runs and a .565 OPS through his first 84 games in Atlanta.  The pressure of the contract, the challenge of changing from the American League to the National League have been cited as explanations to explain these struggles that have weighed on B.J. enough to the point that he has reached out to veteran friends from around the league and told them that he is committed to making the changes necessary to turn things around.

The Braves are hoping the injury (strained right adductor muscle) Upton suffered just before the All-Star break proves to be a blessing in disguise.  If nothing else, it has given the veteran outfielder a chance to have a brand new start and aim to end this season like he did last year, when he hit .252 with 19 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a .876 OPS in his final 57 games with Tampa.

While spending the past few days completing his rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett, Upton has been reunited with Braves’ hitting guru Lee Elia, a Tampa-area resident who has worked with Upton in the offseason during recent years.

Braves hitting coach Greg Walker was pleased with what he saw from Upton during batting practice earlier this week and the club was further encouraged on Thursday night when Upton went 3-for-4 for Gwinnett.

Upton’s return will end Evan Gattis’ recent stint as one of Atlanta’s regular outfielders.  This will upgrade the club’s outfield  defense and bench.

Gattis has hit just .246 with one home run and a .570 OPS in the 15 games he has played since returning from the disabled list on July 14.   In the 26 games he has played dating back to May 31, he has hit .195 (17-for-87) with three homers and a .563 OPS.

Despite Gattis’ struggles over the past two months, opposing managers are not going to be comfortable going into the late innings with the reality that his powerful bat is on the Braves’ bench.  They will be well aware of the fact that he has gone 6-for-8 with four home runs and two walks in 10 pinch-hit plate appearances.  That success rate is utterly ridiculous.

Now, if Upton returns and resumes his struggles over the next couple of weeks, the Braves will not allow his contract prevent them from making the decision to give Jordan Schafer a chance to play center field on a frequent basis.

But for now, the Braves are simply looking toward the next couple weeks and months with the hope that this is a new beginning for Upton, one that will allow him to prove he is capable of strengthening a lineup that has finally started to live up to expectations.

NOTES:  The Braves enter this weekend’s series with an 11 1/2-game lead in the National League East standings.  This is their largest division lead since Sept. 21, 2003…Thursday night’s win allowed the Braves to complete their first perfect homestand of at least seven games since they swept a nine-game homestand against the Phillies, Pirates and Dodgers in April 2000.

 

 

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